USD / CAD Outlook 27/2 – 2/3

The Canadian dollar has to some extent by the oil price. Could turn to and click on the economy of the United States, Canada, No. 1 partner for negotiations. GDP is the most important event this week. Here are an overview and analysis of the Canadian technology update for the USD / CAD.

Last week, retail sales fell 0.2% in December, the first decline in five months due to increased holiday shopping, and a slowdown in the automotive industry slowly. The decline was in line with expectations after gaining 0.4% in November. Meanwhile, sales of plants were held in December, slower than the 0.1% growth expected by analysts. Things are always in shape this week?

Update: The Canadian dollar has benefited from some weakness in the dollar, and tried to stay above the important level of parity. With oil pricesup, the Canadian dollar could continue to rise. GDP is the major release of the week. The USD / CAD is back below par. This line is controversial. The Canadian dollar continues in the United States in a manner to support more than the Greek press. The Canadian dollar fell to 0.99 levels. The numbers of U.S. manufacturing and consumer confidence were stronger than expected.

USD / CAD daily chart, with the support and resistance lines on this issue. Click to enlarge:

Checking account. Thursday, the current account deficit has declined in Canada, 01.30 clocks in the third quarter increase in exports in the middle, with a deficit of C $ 12.13 billion from a revised C $ 16.14 billion during the prior quarter. Experts were C $ 4680 dollars more increased in three years. However, economists expect the deficit due to general insecurity. Should 9.4billion a further decline to a deficit of C $ now.
RMPI: Thursday, 13.30. The IPPI was down 0.7% in December after rising 0.3% in November, mainly due to a sharp drop in energy prices. The relative strength of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar in December also contributed to the fall. Meanwhile, the price index of raw materials fell 2.4% after a rise of 3.8% in the previous month. RMPI is expected to fall by 0.6%, while IPPI is expected to gain 0.2%.
GDP. Friday, 13.30 Canadian economy shrank 0.1% in November in the midst of a drop of oil and gas to a flat reading in October. This decline is expected in contrast to the 0.2% growth from analysts. However, economists believe that the Canadian economy is in a growth trend. GDP growth is estimated at 0.3%.
* All times are GMT.

USD / CAD Technical Analysis

The USD / CAD has fallen into a decline at the beginning of the week, but eventually recovered 0.99 online (mentioned last week). He returned to the fight with parity and finally closed just below the magic number

Technical routes, from top to bottom:

1.0550 is a small cap in September, when the pair traded higher. The round figure of 1.05 had the same role in an increase in November.

1.0440 supports, if the pair is quoted at a higher level in November and was also successful in December, which is more tested. 1.0360, the pair capped in September and October, and has also provided support. Is, now lowering.

The round figure of 1.03 was the culmination of the upward trend observed in November 2010 and found new strength after working as a cover in January 2012. 1.0263 is the peak surges in October, November and December, but collapsed after the upward movement. The break above this line proved to be short-lived, and returned to the old power.

The round figure of 1.02 was a cushion, when the couple fell in November, and the trough in 2009. Today is lower, but still critical. 1.0143 is a swing low in September and later worked as a resistance several times. This is a strong line of resistance and is monitored in each upward movement. An error to break it was the collapse of the couple.

1.0070 is more than one occasion in November, December and January. He worked as a lid also very strong in February 2012.

Very rough USD / CAD parity is a clear line, of course, and a defensive line that finally saw the pair fall lower.

Supported under parity, the round figure of 0.99 in a fall in October and also served as a medium of resistance in June In February 2012 the couple had not questioned him. 0.9830 provided support for the few months of September and is a small line on the way down.

0.9780, which the current execution line is initiated, the next key support. It is followed closely followed by 0.9736, support during August 2011.

The veteran of 0.9667 support line of work than at the beginning of the year 2011 and after several months in the spring. There is a very clear and the strongest line in the table. 0.9550 worked as a support during April and June and is now less important.

0.9406 is the lowest point in July 2011 and is the last frontier for the moment. Below this line by the year 2007.

I remain neutral on the USD / CAD.

High oil prices are a double-edged sword. On the one hand, Canada exported the black gold, but taxes are low on fuel in the U.S., has all the changes in world market prices have a direct impact on consumers and the economy. Canada depends on the strength of the U.S. economy. In addition, the debt crisis could weigh on the Canadian dollar currently, but the time of the outbreak of the current crisis is unknown. However, there is speculation about a default by Greece on 23 Of March.

1/3/ 2012 Daily Forex Outlook

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on the U.S. manufacturing PMI and the UK market is the main engines. Let’s see what awaits us today.

In the U.S., Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve due to testify in Washington DC.

More United States, unemployment claims, whichever occur first introduced unemployment insurance last week, are expected to decrease from 351K to 349K now.

The United States, the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (ISM) index (PMI) for manufacturing, a monthly survey of business conditions in rates, grows, such as inventories and trade suppliers, industry and the growth has been 0.5 points for the last month, up 54.6 points.

Later, in the United States the cost of the personal account activity and the global financial value of all consumer spending growth of 0.4% is expected since last month.

Later in the price index of the United States, private consumption base (PCE), the monthly report on changes in consumer prices for goods and services (excluding energy and food) to measure 0 expect 2% no change from the previous month.

In addition to the United States, Sarah Bloom Raskin to speak, the governor of the Federal Reserve, for example, in Connecticut.

Finally, the United States, Dennis Lockhart, give the Federal Reserve of Atlanta President to give a lecture in Atlanta

In Canada, the current account, the quarterly rate measure, the difference between import and export of goods, services, etc. 12.1b-expected rise in the last report in 9.4b.

Plus in Canada, the price index of raw materials (RPMI), an indicator of consumer inflation in commodity prices due to changes in producer rise by 2.4% this month.

In europe, the unemployment rate, the monthly measure of value (in percent) for all job seekers, 10.4% is expected, similar to last month’s report.

In Europe, the European Union (EU) European Central Bank (ECB) Summit (Day I) leaders are about to meet in Brussels on monetary matters.

Later, in Europe, the (CPI), the flash estimate of change in consumer prices for goods and services is estimated at 2.6% unchanged from the previous month’s report.

Finally, in Europe, the purchasing managers index of the production of finished packages (PMI), a monthly rate of economic conditions, such as supplier deliveries and new orders and more than 49 points was similar to the survey last month.

In the UK, the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), a survey to assess the past few months, including production, employment, new orders and so on, compared to 52.1 points in January, 51, is now estimated at nine points.

In the UK, should David Miles, Exterior Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members will be discussed in London

Finally, in the UK, the House Price Index of the nation (HPI), the value of the variation in sales prices of homes financed with mortgages across the country, the growth of -0.2% 0, expected 3% this month.

In Switzerland’s gross domestic product (GDP) is the quarterly report of the value of goods and services produced, theeconomy must be reduced by 0.2% to -0.1%.

More Swiss Association for Materials Management, purchasing and Switzerland (ASAA) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), monitoring the pace of economic conditions and employment, new orders, prices, inventories, etc. Are expected togrow by 47.3 points in January to 48.6 points now.

In Australia, construction permits, the monthly report on the number of building permits for new problems expected to grow 1.0% in the last report for 2.1% this month.

More Australia, the cost of private capital, the value of the cost of private capital in the new sink in the last quarter as a result of 12.3% to 3.5%.

In Japan, household spending, the value of all consumer spending last month, is expected to fall 0.5% in January to -0.7% this time.

Mayor in Japan, Tokyo (CPI), the value of changes in consumer prices for goods and services from Tokyo (excluding fresh food) is expected -0.4%, similar to last month’s report.

That’s all for today.

The Forex market happy!

Updated: 7 Actions for Canadian dividend paying you never heard

Many companies pay dividends in Canada, especially the famous banks of five major telecom operators and pipeline operators. There are also opportunities for dividends from companies that are small and relatively unknown large-cap investors.

Update: I would like to explain my reasoning for choosing these particular populations.

First Freehold Royalties (FRU-T)
The business model is so excited Freehold. You will be paid against payment of royalties from companies drilling on their land. View the profile of Freehold risk is greatly reduced because they are paid if the company’s oil-exercises or not. $ 51 million in long-term debt, easily one of the best balance sheets in the energy industry. They have 2.8 million hectares of undeveloped land across Canada. The yield is 8.2%.

Second Becker Milk Company (BEK. B-T)
Becker is an owner of a property cheap, with a very stable base tenant. No debt is to start worth the price / book value of 0.68 and a yield of 6%.

Third First National Financial (FN-T)
First National is the largest non-bank lenders of residential and commercial mortgages in Canada. They have an above average return on equity of 28%. The file is produced by 6.9%, compared to its main competitor, Home Capital Group (HCG-T), which produces 1.6%, despite a similar yield.

4th Game Host (GH-T)
In an industry of excess, a racing game host is smart, well-run company. Game Host operates a casino and hotels in Alberta. Alberta is a province that wants exposure, because the economic benefits of oil sands. You have a better balance than their competitors, and the population is now 7.6%.

5th Medical Facilities Corp. (RD-T)
Medical Facilities Corp. Owns an indirect interest in specialty hospitals and surgical centers in the United States. A very stable and prosperous economy, with strong macro tailwinds (aging population, people are still injured or sick). Obviously, a strong balance sheet with an 84 million debt has managing. The yield was 8.7%.

6th Richelieu Hardware (RCH-T)
Richelieu would benefit from a recovery in the U.S. housing market, whenever the inevitable happening in the future. You are in the business of specialty chemicals, hardware, sales of window and door manufacturing, trading and woodpeckers. They have almost no debt. Not a lot of expectations for this, because of the negative tone of U.S. households. The returns of 1.6%

7th Cooperators General Ins. (CCS. PR. C-T)
Co-operators is a set of cash flows, because they pay a fine bonus from the insurance. Could be a possible candidate for an acquisition by one of the major banks. The yield is 5.3%.

4 Canadian file selection without analyst coverage

Shares have not met a rare species and can have a big investment for the investor to entrepreneur. peter lynch is an advocate for the purchase of the unknown, underestimated, companies in industries without sounding boring uninteresting analyst coverage. Actions are not covered by the investors, to form their own opinions of the story instead of looking for “professional” for a recommendation. In general, an analyst begins to climb the reach of these companies is available to shareholders before they are rewarded accordingly. After a portion of the portfolio is called for such actions “no coverage” is an excellent way to get into what I like to diversify “the armpit” call of the market. As with all stocks, the normal due diligence and applied research. An inventory of heavy debts and income, without analyst coverage, not a good investment.
First Destiny Media Tech Inc (DSY-T) – Target service allows labels to distribute music videos and clips securely to radio and media. They also offer real-time software radio and Internet Internet TV. His insurance sales service seems to be the leakage of demand “in the music industry to be more frequent. You have no long-term debt and are in good financial position (cash in hand has quadrupled in the last year) to advertise their products. Id like to work more in to do it. Without analyst coverage at the time.
Second Car Canada (ACQ-D) – owner and operator of car dealerships Canada. Because of its strong financial position to be able to conservatively grow through acquisitions stable. You 49million in cash and a long-term debt / equity ratio of 0.21. A society without boring analyst coverage.
Third Becker Milk Co. (BEK.BT) – Milk Becker owns a property portfolio with a very stable tenant base. They are also active in property management. To understand the reasons, without debt, 6% yield, the price of 0.68 / pound. Cheap, boring, boring, and analyst coverage.
4th Asian Television Network (T-SAT) – ATN operates licenses or special multicultural stations in the South Pacific and the Asian population in North America. Partner business model with key telecom players and earn a commission of subscribers to its channels. After discussion and analysis Management Q3 2011, they are sure they can launch new channels and increase the current channel subscribers also many opportunities in advertising. They have no debt, trading at a PE of 14 forward for a growing company that could grow by 20-30%.

2 easy ways to limit brokerage commissions and fees for retail investors

As a small investor, it is important to know how you manage to accumulate a portfolio without brokers fees and commissions. If treatment with small amounts of money, it is even more important. For some perspective, let’s say you $ 5,000.00 to a kind of trade. You make four trades per week. You have to buy and sell, if by trade, so 2 or purchases. Sell orders, which are 8 orders per week. An order of $ 10 / would cost $ 4,160.00 per year, this strategy in fees. Almost the entire amount of money you started with.

This is how most people drop the concentration of genes in the trade. It is a practice worth pursuing, eager to track your spending and find ways to define a better portfolio management. This usually requires much less “profit taking” or cutting positions. “With this in mind, here are my two simple steps to limit the broker’s fee.

No trade first – brokerages traders love. One can never see promotions brokers who say: “Open your own long-term investment.” Everyone says, “Open yourself” “to be a platform for professional traders to negotiate with our super fantastic.” Or you do it because of the active trader sells a lot more lucrative to a passive investor for runners. I speak from experience, most financial salespeople (II, an ex-employee with TD am) regardless of whether you pay the costs too much. They just want to contribute only to the sale to the highest income their share. These sales with higher incomes tend to credit and operational accounting and ruthlessly rejected by the staff for sale. For the vast majority of traders end up with agents in the industry time to a passive investor with large companies underperform.

I learned the hard way in 9.8, when I started managing my own portfolio. Despite a great year for stocks, I missed part of the room to try to “game” or “commerce” in the market, another major negative point of negotiation. With this knowledge, if you trade in and out, their limited resources by the lack of a big move at some point, if the market rises, moves very quickly at the right time, no one expected. His best lap time of ups and downs all the time missed, so you have never been a big step. Meanwhile, “There is a market of traders, without thinking, that joined in the media. As a rookie, I feel for the media propaganda.

Second, choose the best broker by profession – it is true, I would sacrifice an act of cheap production and customer service capabilities and lower costs to the economy. Depending on what you enjoy, you want to do some research to find the best broker for you. My advice is to go for the cheapest online broker by trade. I use my brokerage account when I have to buy or sell. All you do to be what I have done through research and SEDAR.com other dating sites and business news. I usually add my trading platform about 3 times per month. (If your claim is on sale every day and being a long-term investor to stop now. It makes no sense.) The sale of luxury features is just another way to attract more investors to trade and pay higher prices. Do you think that would be Warren Buffett or peter lynch has been better if they had the great features investors to act? No. None of them have a computer, even today. To be a successful long-term investor to be, is all you need quarterly / annual reports and discussions and analysis in order to follow the story. Everything can be found at sedar.com Canadian populations. The rest is just noise. Despite what brokers and dealers on the street, said Johnny.

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3 steps to start in the stock market

Learn the three steps to get into the stock market is your experience less intimidating.

It is possible that so many people who are afraid of the award. Given the turbulent market we have experienced in recent years, fears are justified, but for those of us, what motivates the market fluctuations that would justify the investment in the market in these uncertain times can be understood. In the long run, the stock market to be exceeded, the most any alternative investment. Have you taken a look at the real estate market and CD rates lately? These are certainly not the most attractive alternatives. Here are three steps to start in the stock market.

Step 1: Determine the type of account

First A 401K plan, or if you work for a nonprofit organization, a plan 403b

Second Traditional IRA, Roth IRA, IRA, IRA or September to a simple

Third Brokerage Account

4th Stock Purchase Plan or Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP)

Step 2: Review your investment options

First – The shares of property companies

Second Preferred shares – special types of stocks that pay high dividends usually have, but not limited to the head

Third – Corporate bonds, municipal bonds, savings bonds, treasury bills, the Government of the United States, etc.

4th – The liquidity of money market funds, which are designed to be to protect their purchasing power, which is as a cash payment of winnings

5th The real estate investment trusts, or REITs, a particular mode of appointment of the company that does not allow for the taxation at the corporate level, assuming 90% of the proceeds to shareholders. The assets are invested in a variety of real estate projects and real estate.

6th Mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs), index funds and actively managed funds. I personally like exchange-traded funds, especially for investors for the first time, that are open to the public.

Step 3: Do your research

First 10k – this is the annual filing with the SEC and one of the most important documents of the research available to investors on a company

Second 10Q – a smaller version of the 10K, which is at the end of each quarter a year

Third Proxy Statement – contains information about the Board and senior management compensation and shareholder motions

4th Annual Report – read the report of the president, once seen as a CEO and CFO of how they see society. Also right on the sheet profit and loss account and balance sheet cash flows.

5th Examine the historical information of five or ten years from companies like Morningstar, Value Line, S & P and Moody – outside research firms

Performing an analysis Buffet / Graham-inspired file

I like to quote from the first “The Intelligent Investor” by Benjamin Graham, summarizing, analyzing what we work for all the security, in our case, the common stock is referring to.

“Offers of security experts with the past, present and future of any security problem. It describes the company, but its operating results and financial position, exposing summarized their strengths and weaknesses, its opportunities and risks, an estimated earning capacity in the future under different assumptions or as “best estimate” comparisons. By several undertakings or several times the same company makes. Finally, he expresses an opinion as to its attractiveness as an acquisition, if it is a common core. ”

In general, it is the activities of investors should diligently to analyze an action for a potential purchase. To these simple ideas, how to perform the activities of a security analyst, since the context of a timeless Ben Graham / Warren Buffett to renew focus type ofanalysis.
They are defensive or enterprising investor?

Be sure to choose your own style and tolerance for volatility, investors inspired Buffett / Graham between a defensive investor or entrepreneur investor. As a defensive investor, Graham recommends adherence to large companies that have a long history of life (20 years) the increase in the dividend have. A long-term records of increasing dividends, he says, are a reliable measure of the quality of the question. On the other hand, a professional investor is free to look for small stocks trade less popular than “net current assets (or net working capital)” and / or topics that have a positive “invested return on capital have (ROIC),” terms that go into more detail later.

File common criteria
A strict philosophy of Graham style should conform to these criteria. Most recently, Warren Buffett has ventured outside the guidelines, always willing to pay a higher price for a company with “intrinsic value”. However, the investor Buffet / Graham are advised to strictly follow the guidelines of the financial position and results of stability described below. These are points in common is that all important investments in general.

First Profit Multiplier – a multiplier of earnings, or P / E of less than 10

Second Financial situation – a) Current assets less current liabilities of 1.5 times, and b) the debt is not greater than 110% of net current assets. (As I like to use the debt is long term debt / equity must be at or below 0.5)

Third Earnings stability – has lost money over the past 5 years.

4th Earnings growth – sales last year more than last year. (Set the recession)

5th Price – Less than 120% of the net tangible assets.

A closer examination of the net current assets, net working capital and return on invested capital (ROIC)
Quite simply, net capital and net working capital work can be used interchangeably (they are the same). To obtain the value of net working capital, take the value per share of current assets less the value per share of total liabilities, divided by the number of shares outstanding. If this number is higher than the share price, the problem symbolizes at a discount to the net current assets that are of great value in the sense of Graham the trade. Graham has long been an advocate of buying shares trading below their net working capital. Stocks trading below net current assets are nearly impossible to find in a bull market. See you in times of recession these available very cheaply, which tend to recover once the market recovers.

ROIC is closely tied to earnings per share, however, is a purer form of measuring the power of the profits of an enterprise. The main advantage of the EPS ROIC is that it is the accounting cost and time includes the bias may contain estimates of BPA. ROIC formula:
ROIC = Earnings / Capital Investment Owner

If the income of the owners is equal to operating income …

- Depreciation,

- The income taxes generated less the cost of stock options, investments and the income from the pension fund untenable statements.

And if the investment is equal to the total assets …

- Less money in short-term debt at an interest rate and no

- In addition to the existing accounting fees, which reduces the capital

An ROIC of 10% is attractive, can also be a problem with the 6-7% ROIC something more attractive if the company is the major brands and has a competent management.
At its margin of safety

Actions that can meet the most criteria mentioned above will greatly increase your safety margin, which decreases the probability of loss (a lot of Graham’s philosophy). The goal of Mr. Buffett, Graham, the margin of safety with a focus on future growth and development of the market and benchmark performance is combined. Buffett relies less on the quantitative analysis, and prefer, in simpler terms, then in order to achieve their investment decisions. The philosophy of Warren Buffett, with the help of his partner, Charlie Munger, the company is focused on easy to understand, in excellent financial health, they have an excellent record of continuous increase in return on investment. Both foci on the management philosophies of great integrity who think like owners, rather than managers, and not pay the salaries of luxury.
Inspired by an analysis of Buffett / Graham, an investor can understand how to achieve a stock market value and thus the comparison of other problems to a decision more favorable investment climate. A highlight in the investment is the willingness to say “no” and lower investment opportunities that are not specific criteria. Buffett and Munger have often spoken publicly more. Basically they say that throughout life, you can not get more than 20 investment opportunities change lives. The goal of the smart investor should first recognize these opportunities and secondly, they use to be brave and strong investment in the. This emphasizes the practice of targeted exploitation Buffett’s portfolio, rather than broadly diversified across sectors and regions.