5 reasons why Portugal does not return on short-term markets

The IMF will be expected to return to Portugal to bond markets in 2013. Of course, North Portugal, Greece, and a complete failure are not in the cards. Not yet.
 
But there are many reasons why hard-to-market returns are Portugal, and perhaps need a second rescue.
 
Saving measures: The most obvious reason is the lack of growth. The Portuguese government is to cut spending and raise taxes to make up the shortfall. These measures to end any possibility of growth, reduce tax revenues and the ratio between debt and GDP renewal.
Expectations are for a ratio of 115% in 2013, no haircuts. It is certainly better than Greece, but still worrisome.
 
Hidden Debt: Again, Portugal is not Greece. In neighboring Spain also has a problem with hidden debt, which is probably worse than that of Portugal. However, there is some “hidden debt” on the island of Madeira. Other holes like this could.
 
European recession forecasts for europe are increasingly cloudy, and Portugal is no different. The addition of this recession for the austerity measures, which weighs on the economy.
The subordination of the ECB: The case of Greece is the bonds that are exempt from the European Central Bank held a haircut. It cannot deter private investors looking to invest in Portugal. If the debt restructuring, bondholders suffer Portuguese private debt? The subordination of the ECB is a bad precedent.
 
No credit event: This is a trial right. ISDA can still change their minds and the rule that a credit event has occurred in Greece. Currently, a credit event has not been called to Greece, in spite of the above submission of the ECB, the involuntarily of Greek restructuring “voluntary” debt and collective action clauses included in the legislation Greek. If this continues, credit default swaps are useless. No real protection in your hand, why take a risk with the investors in Portugal?
 
Portugal, really needs to surprise, be it through successfully reforms, or a change in the economic fortunes of the continent in the market back in 2013.
 
Now it seems an illusion.
 
Portugal is currently in a second level, the impact on the euro. Undoubtedly an important role in the Greek theater makes a break.