Thursday, March 1, 2012

EUR/USD Outlook 27/2 – 2/3

Euro / dollar finally broke and made a very impressive rally of more than 300 pips. The second Greek rescue operation has been agreed, and the Euro has played a long list of questions. The region has turned a page, or is it before the fall? The highlight of next week is the second LRG The ECB, in which banks need more money. Here is a list of upcoming events and updated technical analysis for EUR / USD. Greece still has 38 applications by the Troika to happen at the end of February. The PM on Wednesday. The Greek Parliament was faster with the lighting of the bond swap. In this sense involves the hairstyle to private bondholders 66% of the subjects. Do you think if Äôll get only 26% -27% of your money and an insurance against a default? These are the two biggest obstacles. View the PM events. Last week, the Germans were good indicators Clock. Update: EUR / USD remains above 1.34, but the couple escaped from their highs last week. The G-20 in Mexico could be no concrete decisions, and funding for the IMF rescue package in the Greek or in the air. S & P cut Greece to default selective, but he shrugged his shoulders through the markets. German finance minister of Greece has shown the door, and another success came the call for a referendum in Ireland, the recent changes in the contract. The EUR / USD is the slope of 1.34, again, after retrieving the foregoing. See how the U.S. trade to GDP of EUR / USD. The EUR / USD moved, trading at 1.3440. The couple may react with the second LRG The ECB and the Fed, Ben Bernanke, the testimony of the administrative staff. EUR / USD daily chart, with the support and resistance lines on this issue. Click to enlarge:

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1. M3 Money Supply: Monday, 9:00. The money supply growth has slowed more than expected in recent months and reached 1.6%. Now expected to increase to 1.8%. This is a sign of recession. 2. German CPI: Tuesday. Consumer prices in the No. 1 in Europe in the economy fell 0.4% after jumping 0.7% in advance. This seesaw is likely to continue, with prices rising 0.5% this time. The various German states release this figure during the day. Figures are for February. 3. GfK German Consumer Climate: Tuesday, 7:00. This survey of over 2000 consumers has been increasing, reflecting the economic strength of Germany. After reaching 5.9 points last month, an increase of 6.1 is expected now. 4. German import prices: Wednesday, 7:00. Prices of imported goods are expected to increase for the third consecutive month. After rising 0.3% last time, an acceleration of 0.5% is expected now. 5. ECB LTRO II: Wednesday. The European Central Bank allocates money to European banks for loans of three years. The interest rate is low and the ECB accepts low-grade bonds as collateral. This has two goals: to encourage banks to buy sovereign debt, pledge as collateral, arbitration and enjoy lower yields for troubled countries like Spain and Italy. The second objective is to get the money to these banks in trouble, especially if they lose money on sovereign bonds from countries such as Greece. The first operation resulted in 489 million Euros of loans and is considered to have saved the banking system of a credit crunch. Estimates for the second operation vary from 200 billion to 1 trillion Euros. A large number means that banks rely on the ECB and are ready for a breach of Greece. This event will be followed closely. 6. French consumer spending: Wednesday, 7:45. Europe's second largest economy suffered a 0.7% drop in spending after two months of moderate increases of 0.1%. A return to growth is now expected, up 0.3%. 7. German Unemployment Change: Wednesday, 8:55. The German labor market is unstoppable. The number of unemployed decreases steadily, with very brief stops. A large drop of 34K was last seen. A slight decrease in the 5K race is now expected. Optimists look to Germany to take everyone. Pessimists are waiting that Germany threw down. 8. Final Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 9:00. The initial reading of the index of purchasing managers showed in February that this sector is contracting, albeit at a slower pace, with the score rising from 48.8 to 49 points. This figure is likely to be confirmed. A score above 50 represents growth. 9. CPI: Wednesday, 10:00. These are the final figures for January, released later than usual this time. Initial figures showed that the CPI remained at 2.7% a month. This is likely to be confirmed now. The core CPI is expected to increase from 1.6% to 1.8%. With a mild recession has already recognized and feared a deep recession, inflation is not as worrisome. 10. Unemployment rate: Thursday, 10:00. Contrary to Germany, the average Euro area is much higher: 10.4%. This figure is likely to remain unchanged. Spain rate is around 23%. Rajoy's new government is fighting labor laws in a controversy. 11. CPI Flash Estimate: Thursday, 10:00. It is an initial estimate of February, published in time. CPI is expected to score below 2.7% to 2.6%. Rising oil prices are expected to have little impact on this occasion. 12. German Retail Sales: Friday, 7:00. German consumers may be confident, but not on a shopping spree. The volume of sales last month increased only 0.1% after two months of declines. A more significant increase of 0.5% is likely now. 13. PPI: Friday, 10:00. Producer prices have not changed much recently, Fall 0.2% after rising by the same scale. A stronger increase of 0.6% is likely now. * All times are GMT

       

EUR / USD Technical Analysis Euro / dollar started the week trading range 1.3212 to 1.3280 weeks the latter lines. Higher than divided, and after a temporary stoppage of 1.3333, which we were founded and the end of the week near 1.3450 lines. The couple lives up to its predicted location on the list of most currencies. Technical routes to and from: If the game continues in a strong, let us start from a very high: 1.3960. There was opposition in October 2011 and serves more than once in advance. 1.3868 resistance used during the month of October and November, and is the next resistance level. 1.38 The couple was arrested in September and below is low, and now the resistance to date. 1.37 had a similar role at the same time, and later worked as a consultant. There is a strong resistance. 1.3615 support were amended in October to support in November and is now resistance. 1.3550, the pair capped in November and December and marked the beginning of autumn. 1.3450 was strong in November. It is now a small line of battle, as we have seen recently. 1.3333 provided support for the couple in December 2011 and is now stronger after it is very different. Nearby, a similar role was 1.3280 at the same time, but is weaker again, after working only temporarily. The pair held 1.3212 and falling resistance changed later. Now supports after work as a resistance more than once in February 2012. 1.3150 is the updated version of the lines of 1.3145, after the recent agitation. The lowest point in October 2011 is received, with a central line in the middle of the range. 1.3050 is the updated version of 1.3060, which was on the upper edge of a narrow bandwidth that has characterized the couple in 2011. It is now a serious support lower after it than at the lower end, and despite a temporary measure for this line. The round figure of 1.30 is psychologically important, but now is much lower. It was a Basic Line before Bernanke rally. 1.2945 lines are stronger, and continue to provide support. 1.2873 is the previous low temperature set in January 2011 and to support again. This is a very strong line between the areas. 1.2760 is a central line in the middle of a last field. He supported this year. 1.2660 was a false bottom in January to below this line is not yet confirmed. 1.2623 the current 2012 is low, but plays only a minor role today. Despite the large demonstration that remain bearish on the EUR / USD There are too many reasons for the possibility that the bailout will doubt born in Greece: the timetable for approval of amendments 38 to the unknown contribution to the IMF, the refusal of Germany to add more resources, the uncertainty of exchange and bond more. It also appears that the creditors and, above all Germany, I want to fail only the agreement. Once the banks get the money in the LRG, could break the hell. Full details are available in the special report. Subscribe to the newsletter to download. Across the Atlantic, things are fine. Ben Bernanke may be soft, but the odds remain QE3 March low. If you have an interest in a different way to have to trade Forex find weekly binary options settings, including the EUR / USD, GBP / JPY and more.

 

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