Monday, March 5, 2012

USD/CHF Outlook 5/3 – 9/3

The Swiss franc fell against the dollar this week, losing almost 200 points as it closed at 0.9140 levels. Next week, four versions. Here is an overview of the Swiss, and updates the technicalanalysis for USD / CHF.
 
The Franks followed the Euro, which fell badly against the dollar this week. Recession Rescue Spanish and Greek continues to scare investors and traders, and the dollar took advantage of thesituation.
 
USD / CHF daily chart for support and resistance lines on this issue. Click to enlarge:
 
1. Retail Sales: Monday, 08.15. This indicator is a very volatile market, difficult to accurately predict. The indicator last month was a disappointing 0.6%, well below the market forecast of 1.6%. The forecast calls for a strong rebound in March by 2.1. % This is the best level since September 2011, and could be a sign of an improvement in the retail sector to be.
 
2. Unemployment: Wednesday, 0645. The unemployment rate has fluctuated around 3% since last May. No change is expected this month.
 
3. Foreign Currency Reserves: Wednesday, 08.00. This indicator is important for traders because there is an indication of how aggressively the central bank acts to protect the Franks offers. The February reading was 227.2B, the lowest level since August 2011.
 
4. CPI: Thursday, 08.15. CPI is the inflation rate, and may be a market mover. The index fell 0.4% last month, what a weak economy. The prognosis for a healthy reading in March from 0.2% rise in inflation.
 
USD / CHF Technical Analysis
 
USD / CHF has recovered from the fall of the last week. The pair opened in the, 8943, reaching a low of, 8936th He then increased strongly, breaks the 0.91 levels, as indicated by the line resistance 0.9120 (discussed last week) and given up to 0.9149. USD / CHF closed the week at 0.9139.
 
Technical routes to and from:
 
We begin with the 0.9636 resistance line. It is about 0.9510, which was tested in January and provides strong resistance followed. Then the line is 0.9412, which acted as support in the past month, and is now in the role of resistance. The following is the resistance level of 0.9306. It is about 0.9250 lines. The latter was tested in February followed. Then, a resistor provides 0.9204, but it can also fail if the USD / CHF continues to move upward.
 
0.9120 lines are tested several times, and are now available for less than both the 0.91 level broke this week. Next support in 0.9050 line is followed by 0.8924. Here is 0.8850, the pair provides a strong support since November. The following is the line of 0.8768. The final amount of support is now 0.8710.
 
I am neutral on USD / CHF.
 
USD / CHF showed a large amount of vitality, while the pair continued to swing in both directions. Although the U.S. economy has shown signs of strong growth, and fights the Swiss economy, the Franks had a strong 2012 to today.

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