Germany is highly motivated deep economic pitfall has shown

The data show that in Germany, the locomotive of the European economy is still in full force.

The German economy has blessed the research facility in February, announced that business confidence in Germanysince January 108th 3 to 109.6 liters. This is the sign of the index of German business confidence rose for the fourth consecutive month and climbed as high as 7 months. The blessing of the 7000 Enterprise Institute surveys shows that most companies that the future will be better taken into account the state over the six months. The confidence that the company is the main reason for the German domestic demand and strong construction and operation of the commercial sector is a plus.

But in the Euro area was desolate. Late last year, the Commission is also expected that 2012 economic growth is noticeable in the Euro zone, not by 0.5%, and is responsible for recent European Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, said Ryan, the area economy € expressed “slight decline”. The European Commission said the last report in 2012, to be the Euro zone economy by 0.3% negative growth. Greece after four consecutive years after the recession of 2012 will continue in the tragedy, at least 4.4% of the unwanted growth. Even more worrisome, is the third largest economy in the Euro zone, the Italians will see a 1.3% negative impact of economic recession. And profitable growth in 2012 is also in Germany by 0.6%.

Now back to the old problems effectively in the economic malaise in the Euro zone, Germany, the engine power, how long will it take?

Germany Greek “the virus has invaded Germany economic unit” Business Day recently six companies are listed. “In fact, you end up with economists warn that the instability in the Euro zone is the biggest threat to the German economy. At an autumn said in 2012 the German economy into a recession then. But if not so serious topics, but the Euro Zone debt crisis of the German economy or influence. And, like Germany, “said business daily newspaper is not only the finance, insurance, debt of Germany, the crisis affected the German industry and the service suffered. Production of the countries depends on yourself, it’s a very painful blow.

950 000 workers in the German industrial machine manufacturing plant are the backbone of the German economy, the greatest strength of German exports. Since the debt crisis in europe since the beginning of 2009 Germany’s “big countries” mechanical equipment is falling exports, made from 2008 € in 2011 to 12.2 million Euros. The Association of German Machinery Equipment Manufacturers Association has recently revised expectations for 2012 growth of the industry, increases the growth rate of 4% to zero growth in 2011 revised engineering manufacturing mechanical equipment also increased by 12%. It is caused by stagnant growth in the Euro zone is not stable, 2, falling demand from China. The industry has been waiting for optimism is gradually from large corporations to small and medium-sized, said that due to the economic environment is stable, the focus is not clear. The area of the former Siemens to pull for the first time in two years. Regardless of whether the chief financial officer, said the Siemens in Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain, the company’s revenue, a total of 6% of sales, but justice in these countries in the European South was well enough solar energy, because the debt crisis and the lack of progress.

If the bag is the barometer of the national currency, the German stock market is still a thriving scene. But in this view, Germany, the economic malaise in Europe has shown the locomotive.

Will the U.S. economic recession, SideStep Europe?

The surprises continue in the U.S. economic recovery.

Are reports this week that house prices rose by 0.7% in December with the promise to end one year if the prices by 2.4% for the year. And existing home sales up 4.3% in January. Even more surprising was the inventory of unsold homes at the lowest level since March 2005.

The situation on the labor market decreased the importance of the four-week average of claims unemployment move again, and it is now at its lowest level since March 2008 to demonstrate that the jump was not in jobs in recent months, a gaffe.

These reports are supplemented accumulated since October surprises, automotive, manufacturing, consumer confidence, retail sales, and so on.

However, the recovery remains anemic, with forecasts that GDP will only increase by 2% or more this year. This is down from the forecast of 3.5% to 4% that were the consensus forecast for 2012 a year ago.

And indeed, despite the dramatic improvements in last summer, fear of the economy in a recession for a number of measures of the economy is not recovering from the failure of last summer.

It has increased the ISM Mfg Index important every month since October and reached 54.1 in January. Any number above 50 indicates growth. But it was too much higher, as compared to 59.5 in March and April of last year, just before the economy stumbled last summer. It’s the same with the ISM non-Mfg Index, which represents the important service sector, which in turn, the majority of jobs in the U.S. ISM non-Mfg index covers also increased since October, to 56.8 in January. But he was at 59.0 in February from the previous year.

So I wrote a few weeks, we will not be too optimistic.

The slower growth anemic 2.0% of current GDP is no more than a long way to go to achieve a negative growth (recession). And unfortunately, many of them from the hands of the United States. As was the case two years ago, still worries about the U.S. economy, to leave europe.

In Europe, it seems that the EU has once again succeeded at least once in the euro zone debt crisis on the road, and maybe even the scene in time for its possible long-term solution.

However, the agreement, which kicks of the box on the road and elements that could further weaken the already weak economies of the Euro zone. I am referring of course to the condition that additional austerity measures imposed on the last countries in the Euro zone, including more cuts in public spending through layoffs, wage cuts, benefits, pensions and benefits.

The IMF predicts that the 17-nation Euro zone to be in a mild recession this year, and has now warned that European governments need to be careful how quickly the government spending in an effort to reduce its debt ever meet He warned that budget cuts and strong growth to slow further and worsen the situation.

EU officials stuck to their insistence on austerity measures is their view that governments should not think in the short term, but a long-term problem that is created when the deficit further.

The IMF said, that could take 20 years in Europe, pay for accumulated national debt during the 2008 financial crisis, global recession and recovery, noting that it took so long to pay for the debt of Europe to work during the Second World War, without too cause major problems in the population.

The U.S. recovery from the global economic crisis was repeated rescue and the final cost of more delays, because every time the budget deficit and the fiscal stimulus too soon and urged that the recovery was underway, the economy stumbled again, and requires another round of support.

In another example of the success of 1980, to President Reagan’s programs on the massive spending the economy pulls out of the economic disaster of the 1970s as a result of years of government debt and paper, which was long after the continued recovery in progress for a decade or more before the deficit began to decline, and it was not until 1990 that the deficits, surpluses transformed.

In the short term, if economic stimulus packages expire in the spring of each of the last two years, stumbled the rest of the economy and almost toppled the economy into a recession, the Fed on the ropes forced the rescue, with Queen Elizabeth Twist of Year 2 Year 2010 and the last “operation”.

This winter, for the third consecutive year, the recovery is back with surprising strength.

But if the United States met in each of the last two summers on the concerns that Europe could slide into another recession, even though they are not able to resist that Europe can really be a recession this summer, maybe a recession by the countries of the region exacerbated forced to reduce the budget deficit too early in the cycle?

The Federal Reserve says it is ready to intervene again if the vibrations of the U.S. recovery. But in each of the past two years has waited too late.

This is likely the market has become a serious concern. That if they follow the instructions in the autumn in Europe in another recession before full recovery of the past, perhaps by changing the world with him